Read the FT recently? Economic doom and gloom are being reported from media outlets on a daily basis right now.
Global unemployment has soared. US job loss claims have been quite literally off the chart in recent weeks, with other countries (such as France and Spain) reporting similar trends.
Question is; is this a blip where labour markets will bounce back after the crisis, or will we see a future trend of high unemployment, with people struggling to get back into work once the lockdown ends?
The answer will likely vary between employment sectors, and all predictions remain speculative for now. It’s currently difficult to predict how employment will look in 6, 12 or 24 months from now. But many economists are forecasting a tight job market that will intensify over the next 2-3 years.
In previous recessions, some economies have fared far better than others, affording professionals to seek work abroad where needed. But this time round, it might not be that easy. By definition, the pandemic is a global phenomenon. Most major economies have borrowed immense sums of money, and some countries may seek to protect jobs for nationals by limiting immigration.
This is all very depressing I know. But aside all the negative press, there will still be plenty of job opportunities out there. New opportunities have and will continue to emerge, to keep up with changing demands. This has already resulted in a boom for some sectors (e.g. ecommerce, logistics, video conferencing, entertainment streaming, and some pharmaceutical, and biotech functions).
Given the unpredictability of the job market going forward, it’s prudent to start thinking about how you can future-proof your career prospects – be it in academia or outside. And whilst wet lab research is on hold, now presents a good moment to devote some time to career management. Those who start considering and planning their options now, will get ahead of the competition when searching for employment.
In this final part of a larger series about working from home (WFH), I’ll focus on career management and outline some proactive steps you can take to get ahead of the unemployment wave.
This is a large topic so I’m dividing it into 2 parts:
- Part 1 (this week) – Academic careers; looking at predictions of the economic future in academia, and what you should do if you’re planning for a long-term academic career
- Part 2 (next week) – Non-academic careers; considering career options outside of academia and tips on transitioning to industry positions during a recession
Managing Your Career, Part 1: Academic Jobs
Economic Future of the Higher Education Sector
For now, many universities and colleges have closed their doors, but not their entire operations. Online teaching, online thesis defences, and some research activity still resumes. Allowing institutions to remain at least partially productive during the lockdown.
Despite this continued productivity however, economic hardship looms for the Higher Ed sector.
In some countries this is largely driven by a predicted drop in international student numbers for the 2020-21 intake. Australia, the UK and US are the top 3 countries whose Higher Ed sector are most dependent on elevated tuition fees paid by oversees students.
Take the UK for example. Up to 1 in 4 undergrads in the UK are reported to be paying international fees. Yet 20-80% of international students are expected to stay away from the autumn intake this year. This has the potential to leave a gigantic hole in the pocket of some UK institutions.
This coupled with the loss of summer courses for this year, has led British universities to seek a state bailout from the UK government. Yet with many employment sectors seeking similar support, it’s currently unclear which ones will be favourably supported by the UK treasury.
How the Higher Ed sector responded to previous recessions, can provide some pointers as to how universities might fair this time.
Following the financial crash of 2008/9, reduced tax revenue from governments hampered their ability to fund public sector activities, including publicly-funded universities.
In the US for example, on average there was a 4.5% reduction in financial support of public Higher Ed institutions.
Furthermore, philanthropic, endowments, and charitable funding also dropped, which reduced university budgets (and limited their research capacity).
To counter these losses, institutions were forced to raise tuition fees. This was particularly evident in the US and parts of the UK. In these countries, students took large loans to pay for this, significantly increasing their personal debt.
The economic future of the Higher Ed sector certainly looks challenging for the next few years and universities are braced for financial losses.
How Will Universities Manage the Economic Impact of the Pandemic?
Is it realistic for Higher Ed institutions to use the tuition fee hike strategy again?
I suspect this time round, it’ll be a much harder sell.
Prospective students might not feel it’s worth the cost, if their predicted post-graduation salaries aren’t significantly higher than current levels (which will be unlikely in a recession with higher incurred tax rates to pay off national debts, and a surplus labour market).
Historically university enrolment numbers tend to increase during recessions. When faced with losing their jobs, individuals often choose to enrol in higher education as oppose to staying in long-term unemployment. So universities may well see increased revenue from higher enrolment of home-grown students over the next few years, which will help.
However, it has also been suggested that Generation Z appear to be opting out of the traditional route of higher education in favour of more affordable, online alternatives, relative to their Millennial predecessors.
Therefore, it’s difficult to predict if universities will see elevated admissions in the coming years or not. At least it’s not a dead cert that they can rely on higher enrolment as a potential increased revenue stream for now.
So if increased income from student fees can’t be relied upon to bridge potential deficits, what else can Higher Ed institutions do to balance the books?
Up to 70% of academic costs are labour. Therefore, we may see further drives towards efficiency and flexibility regarding university employees. Potential options include:
- Laying off staff
- A shift towards part-time and temporary contracts
- A reduction in faculty hires
A reduction in manpower would need to be coupled with a streamlining of certain academic activities. For example, faculty specialisation, merging of colleges, increased sharing of resources, and a shift to online teaching, could all help facilitate a reduced headcount.
Institutions may start implementing such cost saving initiatives more intensively over the next few years.
Academic Employment Prospects
It’s fair to predict that cash reserves may diminish for universities over the next few years. In all likelihood, this will result in a reduction of permanent staff in academia.
So what does this mean for your employment prospects if you’re aiming for a long-term academic career?
Realistically, an already tough employment market looks set to become even tougher in the coming years.
The aim of this post is not to put you off however, should academia be your dream career, and you should not give up! There are still things you can do, to increase your chances of obtaining a permanent position and keeping it (see below).
I would recommend however, given the circumstances, it’s wise to have a ‘plan B’ up your sleeve should you struggle to find academic employment in the future (more on this next week)! Now more than ever, there are no guarantees, so it’s wise to be open-minded towards opportunities.
Planning for an Academic Career
Research progress is implicit with career advancement in academia. So it’s important to remain as productive as possible during the lockdown.
In addition to advancing your research, there are 3 further things you can do to support your academic career progression (and the best thing is, they can all be done on whilst WFH):
- Make a career plan: Devising a career plan enables you to work with an end game in mind. Where do you need to be in 5 years’ time? Then work backwards. What do you need to do over the next few months and years to get there? Be specific on goals that need to be achieved.
Planning is not easy in research (as who knows where the work will take you) and is all the more difficult given the uncertainty we face right now. However, the plan is flexible and can be adjusted (and inevitably will be) as time goes on.
The key is to be strategic in your approach to avoid drift. It’ll focus you on the long-term goal by providing a framework to work towards in the shorter term, and identify milestones you need to achieve in order to reach that goal.
Career planning is a technique employed by successful individuals across sectors, including entrepreneurs (who arguably face equal levels of unknowns to those of researchers).
- Update social media (SM) profiles: Use SM platforms (in particular LinkedIn and ResearchGate) to set out your research speciality, and keep your profiles up-to-date with your latest outputs (publications, presentations etc.). I’ve previously posted on how best to do this.
This is your virtual CV. It’s online for the world to see at all times. If you reach out to others, looking for advice and help, the first thing most people will do is look at your online profile. So be sure to put your best foot forward in this regard by keeping your SM pages current and professional.
- Network in your field: Identify people of influence in your research field or fields in which you’re potentially interested in working in next. Increase your network by reaching out (remotely) to some of these people or people who work with them. A helpful way to do this is to read their recent outputs and contact them with relevant comments or queries about their work.
You can highlight how your work relates to theirs. However, for sensitive information you may need to talk to your supervisor first (if relevant) and mention who you’re reaching out to and why. As an academic I was always very open in sharing information. But some fields are fiercely competitive and/or commercially-relevant. Depending on your own field, you may need to exert caution with the unpublished information you disclose.
The aim is to open a dialog and increase your chances of getting noticed in your field(s). Noticed for future positions, mentoring opportunities, collaborations, funding, invited talks etc. Generally, things that help you to build kudos.
These strategies can help improve your chances of career success in academia. By outlining a career plan and developing a clear and coherent message about your area of expertise, you support your research outputs in demonstrating that you’re on a growth trajectory. Therefore, leaving less to chance!
In Summary
- The pandemic is creating an unstable job market, so it’s important to take stock of your career plans at the moment
- The economic future of academia looks challenging for the next few years and institutions may choose to reduce labour costs to deal with financial losses
- If an academic career is your dream you should still strive towards this, but it’s wise to also devise a ‘plan B’ should you need it
- A stellar research record is essential for your academic career, so keep striving towards this even in lockdown
- Support your research work with other activities that enhance your academic job prospects whilst WFH:
- Career planning
- Updating SM profiles
- Online networking
Next time: I’ll be focusing on non-academic jobs, including tips on how to transition to industry during a recession. For some of you this might be your ‘plan A.’ For others who want an academic career, I recommend you still consider an alternative career path as a ‘plan B’ (should you need it).
‘Til then, stay home, stay safe, stay connected and speak soon!
Vicky (BB founder)